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Updated: Jul 8, 2026

A Method of Trigonometric Modelling of Seasonal Variation Demonstrated with Multiple Sclerosis Relapse Data
Published on: December 9, 2015
Factors predicting incomplete recovery from relapses in multiple sclerosis: a prospective study
M A Leone1, S Bonissoni, L Collimedaglia
1Clinica Neurologica, Ospedale Maggiore della Carità, Novara, Italy. maurizio.leone@maggioreosp.novara.it
Predictors of incomplete recovery after multiple sclerosis relapses are linked to relapse characteristics, not patient background. Factors like severity, duration, age at onset, and symptom number predict outcomes.
Area of Science:
- Neurology
- Immunology
- Clinical Research
Background:
- Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic autoimmune disease affecting the central nervous system.
- Clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) and relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) are early stages of the disease.
- Predicting recovery after initial attacks is crucial for patient management.
Purpose of the Study:
- To identify predictors of incomplete recovery following the first attacks in patients with CIS or RRMS.
- To differentiate between relapse-related and individual-related factors influencing recovery.
Main Methods:
- Prospective evaluation of 72 patients with CIS or RRMS from 2001-2005.
- Analysis of relapse intervals and various predictive factors, including symptom type, severity, duration, and patient demographics.
- Multivariate analysis to determine the significance of identified predictors.
Main Results:
- 209 attacks were analyzed, with 21% resulting in mild and 13% in severe sequelae.
- Sphincteric, sensitive, and motor symptoms were associated with higher probabilities of sequelae.
- Multivariate analysis identified relapse severity, duration, age at onset (>=30), and polysymptomatic presentation as significant predictors.
Conclusions:
- Incomplete recovery from MS relapses is primarily predicted by the characteristics of the relapse itself, such as tissue damage extension and duration.
- Patient-specific factors like genetics and environment play a lesser role in predicting short-term recovery outcomes.
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