[Changing Japan's health care: how it will change? How should we change it?]

This paper consists of two parts. In part one, I show seven "objective" predictions of health care reform in Japan that will be enforced by Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, within a few years following the umbrella law of health care system reform that was enacted in 2006, with special reference to the reform of health care delivery system. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, I predict that neo-liberal reform nor drastic decrease in long-term care hospitals will and cannnot be implemented. In part two, I propose my personal health care reform plan that will enhance health care quality preserving national health insurance system by increasing public health care expenditures. Finally, I emphasize three kinds of subtle evidences that may promote the reform in line with my proposal.