Native South American genetic structure and prehistory inferred from hierarchical modeling of mtDNA

Genetic diversity in Native South Americans forms a complex pattern at both the continental and local levels. In comparing the West to the East, there is more variation within groups and smaller genetic distances between groups. From this pattern, researchers have proposed that there is more variation in the West and that a larger, more genetically diverse, founding population entered the West than the East. Here, we question this characterization of South American genetic variation and its interpretation. Our concern arises because others have inferred regional variation from the mean variation within local populations without taking into account the variation among local populations within the same region. This failure produces a biased view of the actual variation in the East. In this study, we analyze the mitochondrial DNA sequence between positions 16040 and 16322 of the Cambridge reference sequence. Our sample represents a total of 886 people from 27 indigenous populations from South (22), Central (3), and North America (2). The basic unit of our analyses is nucleotide identity by descent, which is easily modeled and proportional to nucleotide diversity. We use a forward modeling strategy to fit a series of nested models to identity by descent within and between all pairs of local populations. This method provides estimates of identity by descent at different levels of population hierarchy without assuming homogeneity within populations, regions, or continents. Our main discovery is that Eastern South America harbors more genetic variation than has been recognized. We find no evidence that there is increased identity by descent in the East relative to the total for South America. By contrast, we discovered that populations in the Western region, as a group, harbor more identity by descent than has been previously recognized, despite the fact that average identity by descent within groups is lower. In this light, there is no need to postulate separate founding populations for the East and the West because the variability in the East could serve as a source for the Western gene pools.