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Interactions between rainfall, deforestation and fires during recent years in the Brazilian Amazonia
Luiz Eduardo O C Aragão1, Yadvinder Malhi, Nicolas Barbier
1Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford OX1 3QY, UK. leocaragao@gmail.com
Summary
Climate and land use drive Amazon fires. Deforestation and fires peak after the rainy season, with droughts intensifying fire risk. Land use change significantly impacts fire patterns in the Amazon.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Climate Science
- Ecology
Background:
- Assessing Amazonia's vulnerability to climate change requires understanding climate-land use interactions.
- Seasonal patterns and interrelationships between rainfall, fires, and deforestation are crucial for regional climate impact assessments.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify seasonal patterns and relationships between rainfall, fires, and deforestation in Amazonia.
- To analyze the impact of the 2005 Amazonian drought on fire occurrence and its relation to land-use change.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of satellite-derived monthly and annual time series data for rainfall, fires (hot pixels), and deforestation.
- Correlation analysis to determine relationships and time lags between variables.
- Quantification of fire increase during the 2005 drought event.
Main Results:
- A distinct seasonality was observed for rainfall and fires, with peaks occurring annually.
- Deforestation and fire occurrences showed significant correlations (above 90%) with time lags, peaking 3 and 6 months after the rainy season, respectively.
- The 2005 drought led to a 43% increase in hot pixels compared to expected values for similar deforested areas, highlighting drought's amplification effect on fires.
Conclusions:
- Anthropogenic land-use change is a key driver of fire seasonality and patterns in Amazonia.
- Droughts significantly exacerbate fire occurrences, even with reduced deforestation rates.
- Ongoing deforestation and fire use for land management will likely intensify drought impacts, increasing fire risk in forest edge areas.
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