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Updated: Jul 7, 2026

Competing-Risk Nomogram for Predicting Cancer-Specific Survival in Multiple Primary Colorectal Cancer Patients after Surgery
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A nomogram predicting long-term biochemical recurrence after radical prostatectomy.

Nazareno Suardi1, Christopher R Porter, Alwyn M Reuther

  • 1Cancer Prognostics and Health Outcomes Unit, University of Montreal, Montreal, Quebec, Canada.

Cancer
|February 21, 2008
PubMed
Summary

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Urology·2022

Men treated with radical prostatectomy (RP) face long-term risk of biochemical recurrence (BCR). A new model accurately predicts BCR up to 15 years post-RP, aiding in personalized risk assessment for prostate cancer patients.

Area of Science:

  • Urology
  • Oncology
  • Medical Statistics

Background:

  • Radical prostatectomy (RP) patients have a significant long-term risk of biochemical recurrence (BCR).
  • Predicting BCR beyond 10 years post-RP is crucial for patient management.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate a predictive model for biochemical recurrence (BCR) after radical prostatectomy (RP).
  • To provide accurate BCR risk assessment up to 15 years post-surgery, adjusting for disease-free interval.

Main Methods:

  • Cox regression and competing-risks regression models were employed.
  • A nomogram was developed using predictors like pathologic stage, Gleason sum, and surgical margins.
  • Internal and external validation was performed on multiple independent cohorts.

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Main Results:

  • The model demonstrated strong predictive accuracy in both internal and external validations (up to 86.3%).
  • Key predictors of BCR included pathologic stage, surgical margin, Gleason sum, RP type, and adjuvant radiotherapy.
  • Actuarial BCR-free survival rates at 5, 10, 15, and 20 years were 84.8%, 71.2%, 61.1%, and 58.6% respectively.

Conclusions:

  • Patients undergoing RP remain at risk for BCR for over a decade.
  • The developed nomogram offers accurate conditional probability predictions for BCR up to 15 years post-RP.