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High-Throughput Behavioral Aging and Lifespan Assays Using the Lifespan Machine

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Mortality, longevity and experiments with the Lee-Carter model.

Steven Haberman¹, Arthur Renshaw

¹Cass Business School, City University, 106 Bunhill Row, London EC1Y 8TZ, UK. S.Haberman@city.ac.uk

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|March 4, 2008

Summary

This study enhances the Lee-Carter model for mortality forecasting by introducing generalized parametric, non-linear models. It allows for improved age-period-cohort analysis and risk assessment in predictions.

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Area of Science:

Demography
Actuarial Science
Statistical Modeling

Background:

The Lee-Carter model is a standard for mortality forecasting.
Existing models primarily capture age-specific period effects.
There is a need to incorporate age-specific cohort effects for more comprehensive analysis.

Purpose of the Study:

To review and extend the Lee-Carter framework.
To develop generalized parametric, non-linear models for mortality.
To enable the modeling and extrapolation of age-specific cohort effects.

Main Methods:

Review of the Lee-Carter modelling framework.
Development of generalized, parametric, non-linear models.
Application of an age-period-cohort version of the model.
Comparative study of simulation strategies for risk assessment.

Main Results:

The generalized models accommodate age-specific cohort effects alongside period effects.
The age-period-cohort model is demonstrated with a worked example.
Simulation strategies for mortality risk assessment are comparatively studied.

Conclusions:

The extended framework provides a more versatile tool for mortality modeling.
The study offers improved methods for risk assessment in mortality predictions.
Enhanced forecasting of life expectancy and annuity values is achievable from both period and cohort perspectives.