Predicting reading success in a multilevel schoolwide reading model: a retrospective analysis

Area of Science:

• Educational Psychology
• Literacy Research
• Developmental Psychology

Background:

• Numerous student variables are known predictors of reading success or failure.
• These predictors have not been integrated into contemporary multitiered schoolwide reading intervention models.
• Understanding these variables is crucial for effective early reading intervention.

Purpose of the Study:

• To examine the validity of key student predictor variables in a longitudinal, retrospective study.
• To determine the predictive power of these variables for initial status and growth in oral reading fluency.
• To assess their ability to predict third-grade oral reading fluency and standardized reading test performance.

Main Methods:

• Longitudinal, retrospective study design.
• Followed 668 kindergarten and first-grade students identified as at risk for reading difficulties through third grade.
• Examined key predictor variables' validity for predicting reading outcomes.

Main Results:

• Specific student variables demonstrated significant predictive validity for oral reading fluency.
• These variables accurately forecast initial reading status and growth trajectories.
• Predictor variables were also effective in forecasting third-grade reading performance on standardized tests.

Conclusions:

• The findings support the integration of identified student variables into multitiered schoolwide reading interventions.
• These variables offer valuable insights for instructional adjustments and assessment strategies.
• Effective early identification and intervention can be enhanced by considering these key predictors.