Longevity can buffer plant and animal populations against changing climatic variability

Area of Science:

• Ecology
• Population Dynamics
• Climate Change Biology

Background:

• Climate change involves alterations in both the average conditions and the year-to-year variability of climatic factors like temperature and precipitation.
• The ecological consequences of changing climatic variability on population dynamics remain largely understudied.
• Understanding these impacts is crucial for predicting species' responses and managing ecosystems.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the sensitivity of long-term stochastic population growth rates to changes in climate-driven vital rates (survival, reproduction, growth).
• To assess how variations in the means and standard deviations of vital rates affect population persistence under changing climatic conditions.
• To identify which species' life histories are most vulnerable to increased climatic variability.

Main Methods:

• Analysis of multiyear demographic data from 36 diverse plant and animal species.
• Utilized stochastic projection matrix models to predict population growth rates.
• Quantified species' sensitivity using elasticity analyses of demographic rates.

Main Results:

• Short-lived species (e.g., insects, annual plants) are predicted to be more negatively impacted by increased vital rate variability than longer-lived species (e.g., perennial plants, birds).
• Species' longevity was a stronger predictor of sensitivity to variability than taxonomic affiliation.
• Decreased climate variability may exacerbate issues with undesirable short-lived species like pests and invasive plants.

Conclusions:

• Short-lived species face heightened vulnerability due to increasing climate variability.
• Population dynamics of short-lived organisms are particularly sensitive to fluctuations in survival and reproduction.
• Management strategies for pests and invasive species may need to consider regional changes in climate variability.