[Early leukemia effect during chronic exposure to radiation with high doses]

The preliminary results of the analysis of leukemia morbidity in the sub-cohort of workers from PA "Mayak" exposed with high (more than 4Gy) doses during relatively short time range (few years) have been obtained in terms of materials from the medical-dosimetry register (SUrIBPh). The earlier dynamics of the leukemia morbidity implementation (2-5 years after the beginning of exposure) was established for this sub-cohort, in contrast to that predicted on the base of examination of the cohort of atomic bombardment victims from Japan cities (LSS). The "'early" leukemia effect is connected with intensive cell death and has a threshold nature. It could be supposed, that intensification of born-marrow hematopoetics restricts a potential of reparation processes and leads to earlier (in contrast with that observed in the LSS cohort) implementation of carcinogenetic effect. Using propositions developed to describe the process of the creation of consecutive specific stable mutation in the target cells, the options is proposed of multistage model, which allows the prediction of post-radiation dynamics of leukemia morbidity intensity. Both data from LSS(DS86) and from the register for workers from PA "Mayak" were used to asses the model parameters. The satisfactory agreement is illustrated between the observed dynamics of leukemia morbidity and the model calculations.