Explaining the eventual transient saturation of climate-carbon cycle feedback

Coupled climate-carbon cycle simulations generally show that climate feedbacks amplify the buildup of CO2 under respective anthropogenic emission. The effect of climate-carbon cycle feedback is characterised by the feedback gain: the relative increase in CO2 increment as compared to uncoupled simulations. According to the results of the recent Coupled Climate-Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP), the gain is expected to increase during the 21st century. This conclusion is not supported by the climate model developed at the A.M. Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics at the Russian Academy of Sciences (IAP RAS CM). The latter model shows an eventual transient saturation of the feedback gain. This saturation is manifested in a change of climate-carbon cycle feedback gain which grows initially, attains a maximum, and then decreases, eventually tending to unity.

Numerical experiments with the IAP RAS CM as well as an analysis of the conceptual framework demonstrate that this eventual transient saturation results from the fact that transient climate sensitivity decreases with time.

One may conclude that the eventual transient saturation of the climate-carbon cycle feedback is a fundamental property of the coupled climate-carbon system that manifests itself on a relevant time scale.