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Published on: September 5, 2018
A stochastic dynamical systems view of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
H A Dijkstra1, L M Frankcombe, A S von der Heydt
1Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht, Department of Physics and Astronomy, Utrecht University, 3508 TC Utrecht, The Netherlands. dijkstra@phys.uu.nl
Abstract:
We provide a dynamical systems framework to understand the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and show that this framework is in many ways similar to that of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation. A so-called minimal primitive equation model is used to represent the Atlantic Ocean circulation. Within this minimal model, we identify a normal mode of multidecadal variability that can destabilize the background climate state through a Hopf bifurcation. Next, we argue that noise is setting the amplitude of the sea surface temperature variability associated with this normal mode. The results provide support that a stochastic Hopf bifurcation is involved in the multidecadal variability as observed in the North Atlantic.
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