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An Assessment of Earth's Climate Sensitivity Using Multiple Lines of Evidence
S C Sherwood1, M J Webb2, J D Annan3
1Climate Change Research Centre and ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes University of New South Wales Sydney Sydney New South Wales Australia.
Reviews of Geophysics (Washington, D.C. : 1985)
|October 5, 2020
Summary
Earth's climate sensitivity to CO2 doubling is better constrained than previously thought. New analysis suggests a likely range of 2.6-3.9 K, ruling out very low or high warming scenarios.
Area of Science:
- Climate science
- Paleoclimatology
- Earth system science
Background:
- Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) quantifies warming per CO2 doubling.
- Understanding ECS is crucial for climate change projections.
- Past assessments show wide ECS uncertainty.
Purpose of the Study:
- To constrain Earth's equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) using multiple lines of evidence.
- To provide a robust probability density function (PDF) for ECS.
- To identify key factors influencing ECS uncertainty.
Main Methods:
- Bayesian analysis combining feedback understanding, historical, and paleoclimate data.
- Assessment of evidence against low (<2 K) and high (>4.5 K) ECS values.
- Robustness tests for uncertainties and prior assumptions.
Main Results:
- ECS lower than 2 K is inconsistent with all evidence.
- Last Glacial Maximum cooling constrains ECS above 4.5 K.
- Baseline 66% ECS range estimated at 2.6-3.9 K; 5-95% range at 2.3-4.7 K.
Conclusions:
- ECS is more tightly constrained than in previous assessments, with a higher lower bound.
- Agreement across independent evidence (feedbacks, historical, paleoclimate) strengthens the ECS estimate.
- Future research should focus on comprehensive models and process understanding to further refine ECS.
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