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Updated: Jul 5, 2026
05:37
An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
Published on: September 16, 2022
A test of numeric formats for communicating risk probabilities
Cara L Cuite1, Neil D Weinstein, Karen Emmons
1Food Policy Institute, Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey, New Brunswick, NJ 08901, USA. cuite@aesop.rutgers.edu
Summary
Understanding health risks is crucial. Percentage and frequency formats for health risk probabilities are more accurate than 1-in-n formats, especially for complex calculations.
Area of Science:
- Health communication
- Risk perception
- Quantitative literacy
Background:
- Individuals frequently encounter health risk probability information.
- Effective presentation formats for health risk probabilities are needed.
- Research is required to identify optimal risk communication strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the effectiveness of different numerical formats for presenting health risk probabilities.
- To determine which formats best support accurate understanding and mathematical operations on risk data.
Main Methods:
- Recruited 16,133 participants from a cancer-related internet site across three waves.
- Participants performed mathematical operations (compare, halve, triple, add, sequence, tradeoff) on hypothetical risk scenarios.
- Tested three risk likelihood formats: percentages, frequencies (e.g., 12 in 100), and 1-in-n (e.g., 1 in 8).
Main Results:
- Aggregated accuracy rates were higher for percentage (57%) and frequency (55%) formats compared to 1-in-n (45%).
- Performance varied across different mathematical operations.
- Lower educational attainment, being African American, Hispanic, or female correlated with increased difficulty.
Conclusions:
- Percentage and frequency formats enhance the performance of simple operations on risk probabilities.
- The 1-in-n format is generally less effective and should be avoided for communicating health risks.
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