Non-invasive prediction of skin flap shrinkage: a new concept based on animal experimental evidence

A non-invasive, in vivo method has been developed to predict the skin flap shrinkage (retraction) following a harvest. It involves the use of a novel custom-designed extensometer to measure the force-displacement behaviour of skin and subsequent data analysis to estimate the shrinkage. In validation experiments performed on pigs, this method has been shown to produce results with an average absolute error of 6.0% between the actual and predicted shrinkages. This may be close to what an experienced surgeon would estimate subjectively, thus indicating the potential usefulness of this method to predict flap shrinkage of patient's donor sites.