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Avoided deforestation as a greenhouse gas mitigation tool: economic issues
Brent Sohngen1, Robert H Beach, Kenneth Andrasko
1Dep. of Agricultural, Environmental, and Development Economics, The Ohio State Univ., 2120 Fyffe Rd., Columbus, OH 43210, USA. sohngen.1@osu.edu
Tropical deforestation significantly contributes to greenhouse gas (GHG) accumulation. This study models the costs of avoiding deforestation to reduce emissions, finding significant potential for carbon reduction at various price points.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Climate Change Research
- Forestry and Land Use Analysis
Background:
- Tropical deforestation is a major source of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), contributing up to 25% of global anthropogenic emissions.
- Limited data exists on the economic costs associated with implementing incentives to prevent deforestation and reduce carbon emissions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the marginal costs of reducing net carbon emissions by avoiding tropical deforestation.
- To estimate the potential land-use changes resulting from carbon incentive programs.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a global forestry and land use model to simulate emission reduction scenarios.
- Estimated marginal costs for different levels of emission reductions over 30-50 years.
Main Results:
- Potential emissions reductions range from 0.1 Pg C yr(-1) at $5 per Mg C to 1.6 Pg C yr(-1) at $100 per Mg C.
- Carbon incentives could lead to substantial land-use changes, with 3 million to 422 million additional hectares of forestland by 2055, depending on the carbon price.
Conclusions:
- Avoiding tropical deforestation offers a cost-effective strategy for significant GHG mitigation.
- The study provides crucial data on the economic and land-use implications of carbon pricing for tropical forest conservation.
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