Geo-Setting Risk Assessment in Eurasia: A Multidimensional Framework and Strategies
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Jing Zhang1,2, Suocheng Dong1,2, Jingwen Li1
1Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
Abstract:
Amid intensifying geopolitical tensions and climate-related pressures, geo-setting risk has become increasingly multidimensional. This analysis of geo-setting risk in 16 Eurasian countries from 2010 to 2023, using a composite framework integrating regional geopolitical, political, economic, social, and ecological indicators, revealed marked spatial and temporal heterogeneity. Ukraine, Armenia, the Russian Federation, Georgia, and Azerbaijan were identified as high-comprehensive-risk countries, whereas other countries displayed distinct vulnerabilities across specific dimensions in 2023. The findings suggest that Eurasian geo-setting risk cannot be reduced to the Russia-Ukraine conflict alone but reflects the combined influence of conflict exposure, governance conditions, economic structure, social pressure, and ecological constraints. A two-dimensional typology linking comprehensive risk to the dominant mechanisms is proposed to support comparative risk profiling and differentiated governance discussions.
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