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Macroeconomic fluctuations and mortality in postwar Japan
1University of Michigan School of Social Work and Institute of Labor & Industrial Relations, 1111 East Catherine Street, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-0913, USA. jatapia@umich.edu
Demography
|July 11, 2008
Summary
Mortality rates in Japan fluctuate with economic cycles, rising during expansions and falling during recessions. This economic-mortality link is evident across age groups and genders, with specific causes showing distinct patterns.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Economics
- Demography
Background:
- Long-term declining mortality trends obscure short-term economic influences.
- Previous studies in industrial nations suggest mortality co-moves with economic cycles.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the relationship between economic fluctuations and mortality changes in postwar Japan.
- To analyze time series data of mortality rates and economic indicators.
Main Methods:
- Detrending time series data using Hodrick-Prescott filtering or differencing to remove trends.
- Analyzing general mortality and age-specific death rates for males and females.
- Examining mortality patterns for specific causes of death.
Main Results:
- General and age-specific mortality rates in Japan increase during economic expansions and decrease during recessions.
- The procyclical mortality effect is slightly stronger in males and most pronounced in the 45-64 age group.
- Procyclical deaths include heart disease, pneumonia, accidents, liver disease, and senility; countercyclical deaths include suicides, diabetes, and hypertensive disease.
Conclusions:
- Economic fluctuations significantly influence mortality patterns in Japan, independent of long-term trends.
- Specific causes of death exhibit distinct cyclical behaviors related to economic activity.
- Understanding these economic-mortality links can inform public health and economic policies.
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