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Updated: Jul 3, 2026
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Research and Development of High-performance Explosives
Published on: February 20, 2016
Explosion probability of unexploded ordnance: expert beliefs
Jacqueline Anne MacDonald1, Mitchell J Small, M G Morgan
1School of Public Health, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC 27599, USA. jmacdona@andrew.cmu.edu
Summary
Experts disagree significantly on the explosion probability of unexploded ordnance (UXO). This lack of consensus highlights the need for empirical studies to accurately assess UXO risks and inform cleanup decisions.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Risk Assessment
- Geospatial Analysis
Background:
- Over 1,976 sites on closed U.S. military bases are contaminated with unexploded ordnance (UXO).
- Cleanup costs are estimated between $15-140 billion.
- Current technology cannot guarantee complete UXO removal, necessitating risk assessment for civilian reuse.
Purpose of the Study:
- To quantify expert beliefs regarding the explosion probability of unexploded ordnance (UXO).
- To assess residual risks for civilian reuse of former military sites.
- To inform decisions on cleanup investment levels.
Main Methods:
- Elicited probability distributions from 25 explosive ordnance disposal (EOD) experts with field experience.
- Considered six scenarios involving different UXO types and handling situations (children, construction workers).
- Ranked 20 UXO types by explosion sensitivity at a Fort Ord case study site.
Main Results:
- Significant divergence among experts in mean explosion probability estimates and expressed uncertainty.
- In three scenarios, expert opinion distributions were statistically indistinguishable from uniform, providing no clear risk information.
- Low correlation (average 0.41) in expert rankings of UXO explosion sensitivity, indicating limited predictive value between experts.
Conclusions:
- Expert consensus on UXO explosion probability and sensitivity is lacking.
- The divergence suggests expert opinion alone is insufficient for accurate risk assessment.
- Empirical studies are crucial for a better understanding of unexploded ordnance explosion risks.
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