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Updated: Apr 28, 2026

Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
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Commentary on Holmes et al. (2007): resolving the debate on when extinction risk is predictable

Stephen P Ellner1, Elizabeth E Holmes

  • 1Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14853-2701, USA. spe2@cornell.edu

Ecology Letters
|July 22, 2008
PubMed
Summary

This study reconciles narrow quasi-extinction risk confidence intervals with theory predicting wide ones. It provides an approximation for precise population viability analysis (PVA) estimates, defining safety, danger, and uncertainty regions.

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