A risk score and a flowchart for liver retransplantation

Rates of overall graft survival after liver retransplantation (RETX) are still 20% lower than those after primary liver transplantation (TX). On the basis of previous mathematical approaches from other authors who tried to identify prognostic variables for survival and prognostic risk scores for liver RETX, we studied 12 categorical and 17 continuous variables from the donor, the recipient, and the surgical procedure, among patients who underwent liver retransplantation. Data were retrieved in a retrospective study over the last 12 years, in order to overcome the possible gap of other series that often included RETX performed many years ago. We considered 394 consecutive cadaveric liver TXs in adult patients, namely, 351 primary TXs and 43 RETXs. Using multivariate logistic regression, we calculated the following equation for 1-year risk of death for patients undergoing liver RETX: log(Odds)= -4.81+2.23 x Recipient Sex + 1.86 x Donor Age + 1.60 x MELD Score (where: Recipient Sex: F=0, M=1; Donor Age (years): <40=0, 40-59=1; 60+ =2; MELD Score: <26=0, 26+ =1). With this formula, we built a decision tree to predict the individual risk of death based on the subject's profile. Keeping in mind that mathematical models can only help our decisional process and are not conclusive, our data needs to be validated on a larger scale.