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Updated: Jul 2, 2026

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
Published on: July 24, 2016
Predicting risk of habitat conversion in native temperate grasslands
Scott E Stephens1, Johann A Walker, Darin R Blunck
1Ducks Unlimited, Inc., Great Plains Regional Office, 2525 River Road, Bismarck, ND 55803-9011, USA. sstephens@ducks.org
Native grassland in North America is rapidly converting to cropland. Predicting conversion risk helps prioritize conservation efforts for vulnerable, high-value habitats.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Conservation Biology
- Remote Sensing
Background:
- Native grasslands supporting diverse bird populations are declining due to conversion to cropland in North America's Prairie Pothole Region.
- Limited conservation funding necessitates efficient targeting of mitigation strategies.
Purpose of the Study:
- To estimate the probability of native grassland conversion to cropland.
- To identify areas of high biological value and high conversion risk for conservation prioritization.
Main Methods:
- Utilized satellite imagery and logistic regression models to predict grassland conversion risk in the Missouri Coteau region (1989-2003).
- Compared spatial overlap between areas of high biological value and areas vulnerable to conversion.
Main Results:
- Annualized probability of conversion was 0.004, with 36,540 ha converted during the study period.
- Predictive models accurately identified 70% of observed grassland conversions.
- Conversion probability was spatially variable, influenced by landscape features like surrounding grassland extent, slope, and soil productivity.
Conclusions:
- Prioritizing conservation in the most biologically valuable areas that are also most vulnerable to conversion is recommended.
- This predictive approach is broadly applicable for conservation planning in areas with variable biological value and conversion risk.
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