Before escalation: behavioral and affective forecasting in escalation of commitment

Area of Science:

• Decision-making research
• Cognitive psychology
• Organizational behavior

Background:

• Escalation of commitment is a pervasive phenomenon where individuals persist with failing courses of action.
• Understanding the cognitive and affective forecasting processes underlying this bias is crucial for effective decision-making.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate individuals' accuracy in forecasting their behavior and emotions in escalation of commitment scenarios.
• To examine the relationship between forecasting processes and actual escalation behavior.

Main Methods:

• Three experiments were conducted to assess participants' predictions of their future actions and feelings.
• Behavioral and affective forecasts were compared against actual escalation and experienced regret.

Main Results:

• Participants consistently underpredicted their future escalation behavior.
• Individuals overestimated the regret they would experience after escalating commitment.
• Lower anticipated entrapment was significantly associated with greater escalation.

Conclusions:

• Forecasting accuracy, particularly regarding entrapment, plays a critical role in escalation of commitment.
• Both behavioral and affective forecasting dimensions are important for a comprehensive understanding of escalation dynamics.
• Theoretical and practical implications for mitigating escalation bias through improved forecasting are discussed.