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Making evacuation decisions by using a discrete-time approximation methodology.
G L L Reniers1, A Audenaert, B J M Ale
1Antwerp Research Group on Safety and Security ARGoSS, Antwerp University, Antwerp, Belgium.
Journal of Hazardous Materials
|October 8, 2008
Summary
This study presents a discrete-time model for assessing major accident threats and evacuation costs. Realistic evacuation decisions can be made, but ignoring option characteristics may lead to suboptimal outcomes.
Area of Science:
- Risk analysis
- Operations research
- Safety engineering
Background:
- Elaborates on previous findings by Reniers et al. (2007, 2008).
- Addresses the need for realistic modeling of major accident threats with limited duration.
Purpose of the Study:
- To present a discrete-time approximation model for determining major accident threat severity and evacuation costs.
- To develop a working procedure and software for solving evacuation decision problems.
Main Methods:
- Implementation of a proposed mathematical model.
- Development of software based on suggested algorithms.
- Application of a discrete-time approximation computer simulation for a case study.
Main Results:
- The model enables realistic tackling of precautionary evacuation decision problems.
- A case study demonstrates the application and discussion of obtained results.
- Ignoring option characteristics in simulations can lead to suboptimal intervention decisions.
Conclusions:
- The developed discrete-time model provides a realistic approach to evacuation planning.
- Software implementation facilitates the application of the methodology.
- Highlighting the importance of considering all relevant factors for optimal decision-making in safety-critical scenarios.
