Scientists urge DHS to improve Bioterrorism Risk Assessment

Area of Science:

• Homeland Security
• Risk Assessment
• Biosecurity

Background:

• The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) developed its initial Bioterrorism Risk Assessment (BTRA) in 2006.
• This assessment was intended to guide future biennial risk evaluations as per Homeland Security Presidential Directive 10 (HSPD-10).
• A National Research Council committee was formed to conduct an independent scientific peer review of the BTRA.

Purpose of the Study:

• To provide a scientific peer review of the Department of Homeland Security's first Bioterrorism Risk Assessment (BTRA).
• To identify methodological shortcomings in the initial BTRA.
• To recommend improvements for future bioterrorism risk assessments.

Main Methods:

• Independent scientific peer review of the 2006 Bioterrorism Risk Assessment (BTRA).
• Analysis of the methodologies employed in the BTRA.
• Evaluation of threat and consequence modeling, simulation complexity, and risk management focus.

Main Results:

• The review identified significant shortcomings in the BTRA.
• Shortcomings included not modeling terrorists as intelligent adversaries.
• Excessive complexity in modeling and simulation, and insufficient attention to risk management were also noted.

Conclusions:

• The committee unanimously concluded that the BTRA requires substantial improvement.
• An enhanced BTRA is necessary for a more credible basis for risk-informed decision-making.
• Future assessments must incorporate more sophisticated threat modeling and risk management strategies.