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The climateprediction.net BBC climate change experiment: design of the coupled model ensemble
D J Frame1, T Aina, C M Christensen
1Smith School for Enterprise and the Environment, 75 George Street, Oxford OX1 2BQ, UK. dframe@atm.os.ac.uk
Summary
The British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) climate change experiment, a large perturbed physics study, addresses forecast uncertainty by altering climate model parameters. This research enhances understanding of climate change projections.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models
- Climate Change Forecasting
Background:
- Perturbed physics experiments are crucial for quantifying uncertainties in climate change predictions.
- These experiments involve modifying parameters and parametrizations within climate models to explore a range of possible outcomes.
- Comparing model results with observational data is essential for validating climate projections.
Purpose of the Study:
- To describe the British Broadcasting Corporation (BBC) climate change experiment, the largest perturbed physics ensemble to date.
- To detail the methodology of perturbing atmosphere and ocean physics within general circulation models.
- To integrate these physics perturbations with an ensemble of past and future forcings under the A1B SRES scenario.
Main Methods:
- Implementation of a large-scale perturbed physics experiment using atmosphere-ocean general circulation models.
- Systematic perturbation of key physical parameters and parametrizations within the climate models.
- Coupling of perturbed physics ensembles with a forcing ensemble representing uncertainties in historical and future emissions (A1B SRES).
Main Results:
- The study presents the setup and scope of the BBC climate change experiment, establishing a benchmark for future research.
- The experiment generated a comprehensive dataset exploring the impact of parameter uncertainty on climate projections.
- Results provide insights into the sensitivity of climate forecasts to variations in atmospheric and oceanic physics.
Conclusions:
- The BBC climate change experiment represents a significant advancement in addressing climate model uncertainty.
- This comprehensive approach enhances the reliability and robustness of climate change forecasts.
- The findings contribute to a better understanding of the range of potential climate futures under different emission scenarios.
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