Toward a new method for identifying facilities and communities with critical shortages of nurses

This article summarizes the key findings of a study designed to evaluate the effectiveness of different methods for assessing the severity of nursing shortages in four types of health care facilities in the United States (hospitals, long-term care facilities, home health agencies, and public health agencies). The study involves testing several statistical models using currently available data to assess their accuracy and ease of use as possible bases for estimating and predicting the severity of nursing shortages in individual health care facilities. The assessments are based on criteria developed with the advice of panels of experts knowledgeable about each of the four types of facilities. The results of a "preferred method" for rating the severity of nursing shortages in counties in the United States are presented, along with key findings based on a variety of other models and analyses. Although it requires some refinement and a systematic validation, this method holds promise as a possible basis for targeting federal resources to alleviate the most critical nursing shortages across the country.