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Prognostic table for predicting major cardiac events based on J-ACCESS investigation
Kenichi Nakajima1, Tsunehiko Nishimura
1Department of Nuclear Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, Institute of Medical, Pharmaceutical and Health Sciences, 13-1 Takaramachi, Kanazawa 920-8641, Japan. nakajima@med.kanazawa-u.ac.jp
A new Heart Risk Table estimates cardiac event risk for patients with ischemic heart disease using the J-ACCESS database. This tool aids in predicting major cardiac events, improving patient risk assessment.
Area of Science:
- Cardiology
- Medical Informatics
- Public Health
Background:
- Coronary heart disease (CHD) poses a significant public health challenge.
- Accurate risk stratification is crucial for managing patients with CHD.
- Large-scale prognostic databases offer potential for improved risk estimation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a practical risk assessment tool for major cardiac events in a Japanese population.
- To create a simplified "Heart Risk Table" based on a large prognostic database.
- To predict the 3-year rate of major cardiac events.
Main Methods:
- Utilized the J-ACCESS database (>4,000 patients, 117 hospitals).
- Employed multivariate logistic regression analysis to predict event rates.
- Simplified the logistic regression algorithm to generate user-friendly tables.
Main Results:
- Developed two tables predicting cardiac risk based on age, perfusion score, ejection fraction, and diabetes status.
- Created a relative risk table comparing patients to age-matched controls.
- Demonstrated strong agreement between simplified tables and original logistic regression analysis (P < 0.0001).
Conclusions:
- A validated Heart Risk Table is now available for patients with suspected ischemic heart disease undergoing myocardial perfusion imaging.
- The J-ACCESS database provides a robust foundation for cardiac risk assessment.
- Further validation of this risk assessment tool is recommended.
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