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Updated: Jun 25, 2026
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Research and Development of High-performance Explosives
Published on: February 20, 2016
Quantifying the risks of unexploded ordnance at closed military bases
Jacqueline MacDonald Gibson1, Mitchell J Small, M Granger Morgan
1Department of Environmental Sciences and Engineering, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, North Carolina 27599, USA. jackie.macdonald@unc.edu
Environmental Science & Technology
|February 26, 2009
Summary
Unexploded ordnance (UXO) poses significant explosion risks at former military sites, even after cleanup. A new quantitative model reveals risks to construction workers far exceed safety guidelines, highlighting the need for better assessment methods.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Risk Assessment
- Military Munitions
Background:
- Over 1,900 U.S. military sites are contaminated with unexploded ordnance (UXO).
- UXO poses explosion risks to civilians at former training ranges.
- Existing qualitative assessments may underestimate residual risks.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and present the first systems analysis model for assessing UXO explosion risks.
- To quantify risks before and after site cleanup.
- To compare quantitative model results with qualitative assessments.
Main Methods:
- Developed a stochastic model to estimate UXO exposure and explosion probabilities.
- Applied the model to a case study at Fort Ord, California.
- Compared model outputs with Occupational Safety and Health Administration (OSHA) and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) risk targets.
Main Results:
- Substantial UXO explosion risks can persist even after a site is declared clean.
- Estimated risks for construction workers range from 4 x 10(-4) to 5 x 10(-2), exceeding regulatory levels.
- Qualitative assessments (MEC HA) indicated low risk at the case study site, contrasting with quantitative findings.
Conclusions:
- Quantitative risk assessment is crucial for a comprehensive understanding of UXO hazards.
- Current cleanup declarations may not adequately address residual explosion risks.
- The developed model offers a more robust method for evaluating and reducing UXO risks.
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