A world malaria map: Plasmodium falciparum endemicity in 2007

Area of Science:

• Global Health
• Epidemiology
• Spatial Analysis

Background:

• Accurate malaria risk mapping is crucial for effective resource allocation in malaria control efforts.
• The last global malaria endemicity map was published 40 years ago, highlighting the need for updated data.
• This study presents a new global map of Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity for the year 2007.

Purpose of the Study:

• To generate a contemporary global map of Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity.
• To identify populations at risk of malaria transmission globally.
• To provide a baseline for monitoring and evaluating malaria control interventions.

Main Methods:

• Compiled and validated a global database of 7,953 Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate (PfPR) surveys.
• Employed a model-based geostatistical procedure within a Bayesian framework to create a continuous malaria endemicity surface.
• Estimated populations at risk, adjusting for urbanization effects, using 2007 human population data.

Main Results:

• Mapped global Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity for 2007, including uncertainty assessments.
• Identified 1.38 billion people at risk of stable P. falciparum malaria.
• Found high malaria endemicity widespread in Africa (0.35 billion at high risk), uniformly low levels in the Americas, and predominantly low endemicity in Asia with some intermediate and rare high-risk pockets.

Conclusions:

• High levels of Plasmodium falciparum malaria endemicity are prevalent in Africa, presenting significant control opportunities.
• Malaria endemicity is uniformly low in the Americas, suggesting potential for elimination.
• This 2007 global map serves as a foundational tool for tracking progress in malaria control and elimination efforts worldwide.