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Wealth, intelligence, politics and global fertility differentials
1Ross University, Dominica.
Journal of Biosocial Science
|March 28, 2009
Summary
Global fertility differences are linked to economic development and intelligence, not liberal democracy. Declining global IQ and income are projected if current demographic trends persist.
Area of Science:
- Demography
- Sociology
- Economics
Background:
- Global demographic trends show significant fertility differentials between developed and less developed nations.
- Understanding the drivers of these fertility differences is crucial for global development and policy.
- Key factors hypothesized to influence fertility include economic development, population intelligence, and political modernity.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the primary drivers of international fertility differentials.
- To compare the influence of economic development, population intelligence (IQ), and liberal democracy on fertility rates.
- To project future trends in global average IQ and per capita income based on current demographic patterns.
Main Methods:
- Utilized multiple regression, path models, and latent variable models for analysis.
- Examined the relationship between log-transformed GDP, intelligence measures, and liberal democracy indicators with fertility rates.
- Compared the results across different statistical modeling approaches.
Main Results:
- Both economic development (log-transformed GDP) and population intelligence (IQ) were found to independently reduce fertility across all applied methods.
- The influence of liberal democracy on fertility rates was observed to be weak and inconsistent.
- Projections indicate a potential decline in global average IQ by 1.34 points per decade and per capita income by 0.79% annually, assuming current fertility and mortality rates.
Conclusions:
- Economic development and population intelligence are significant factors influencing global fertility rates.
- Liberal democracy appears to have a limited and inconsistent impact on fertility differentials.
- Current demographic trajectories suggest a future decline in global average IQ and per capita income.
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