A simple prognostic score for risk assessment in patients with acute pancreatitis

Acute pancreatitis (AP) is a common disease that poses potential serious problems. Its clinical course is often unpredictable. Identification of high risk patients enables early appropriate treatment.

We conducted a prospective study to develop a new prognostic method that can objectively and easily grade the severity of AP within the first 72 h of admission. The prediction rule was based on clinical and analytical parameters in 308 patients admitted in a community-based hospital. We validated the score in 193 additional patients in the same hospital.

Independent prognostic factors related to poor prognosis were age >65 years, leucocytes >13,000/mm(3), albumin <2.5 mg/dL, calcium <8.5 mg/dL and reactive C protein >150 mg/dL. We assigned points to each of the independent factors for complicated AP in proportion to the regression coefficients. We defined three different risk groups according to the points obtained in the prediction rule. Low risk, 0 points (18% patients, 0% risk), moderate, 1-3 points (56% patients, 19% risk) and high, 4-6 points (26% patients, 73% risk). The sensitivity of this formula was 90% with specificity of 63%. The positive and negative predictive values were 50% and 94% respectively.

Our simple prediction rule is an additional tool that may help physicians stratifying the severity of AP. Patients with high risk for complicated AP should be kept under close surveillance whereas low risk patients would not need special monitoring.