Recidivistic offending and mortality in alcoholic violent offenders: a prospective follow-up study

Predictive data supporting prevention of violent criminality are scarce. We examined risk factors for recidivism and mortality among non-psychotic alcoholic violent offenders, the majority having antisocial or borderline personality disorders, or both, which is a group that commits the majority of violent offences in Finland. Criminal records and mortality data on 242 male alcoholic violent offenders were analysed after a 7- to 15-year follow-up, and compared between themselves and with those of 1210 age-, sex- and municipality-matched controls. Recidivism and mortality rates were high. The risk of recidivistic violence was increased by antisocial or borderline personality disorder, or both, childhood maltreatment, and a combination of these. A combination of borderline personality disorder and childhood maltreatment was particularly noxious, suggesting an additive risk increase for a poor outcome. Accurate diagnosis and careful childhood interview may help to predict recidivism and premature death.