Survival expectations of patients diagnosed with Hodgkin's lymphoma in 2006-2010

Available long-term survival figures for patients with Hodgkin's lymphoma (HL) from population-based cancer registries mostly refer to patients diagnosed in the 1980s and 1990s, and do not reflect recent progress in and spread of effective therapy at the population level. Using data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program, we employed a novel model-based projection method to estimate 5- and 10-year relative survival expectations of HL patients in the U.S. diagnosed in 2006-2010. Preliminary empirical evaluation of the method using historical data indicates excellent performance. Projections of 10-year relative survival percentages and their standard errors by age groups are as follows: 15-24 y: 94.7 (1.1), 25-34 years, 89.4 (1.5); 35-44 years, 90.1 (1.6); 45-54 years, 83.6 (2.7); 55-64 years, 70.5 (4.7); 65-74 years, 48.5 (5.9); and 75+ years, 24.0 (5.7). These estimates are 2.5-11.1 percentage points higher than those obtained by standard cohort analysis from the same database (pertaining to patients diagnosed in 1991-1995). Patients diagnosed with HL in 2006-2010 have higher long-term survival expectations than suggested by conventional survival statistics from population-based cancer registries. The 10-year survival expectations are now close to or exceed 90% in all age groups up to age 45, and exceed 80% and 70% in the 45-54 and 55-64 age groups, respectively.