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Global Climate Change01:50

Global Climate Change

Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
Causality in Epidemiology01:21

Causality in Epidemiology

Causality or causation is a fundamental concept in epidemiology, vital for understanding the relationships between various factors and health outcomes. Despite its importance, there's no single, universally accepted definition of causality within the discipline. Drawing from a systematic review, causality in epidemiology encompasses several definitions, including production, necessary and sufficient, sufficient-component, counterfactual, and probabilistic models. Each has its strengths and...
Criteria for Causality: Bradford Hill Criteria - I01:30

Criteria for Causality: Bradford Hill Criteria - I

The Bradford Hill criteria are a group of principles that provide a framework to determine a causal relationship between a specific factor and a disease. There are nine criteria that are pivotal in assessing causality in epidemiological studies. Here's a closer look at Strength, Consistency, Specificity, and Temporality criteria with definitions and examples:
Criteria for Causality: Bradford Hill Criteria - II01:28

Criteria for Causality: Bradford Hill Criteria - II

The Bradford Hill criteria serve as guidelines for establishing causative links in epidemiological research. Beyond Strength, Consistency, Specificity, and Temporality, key criteria also include Biological Gradient, Plausibility, Coherence, Experiment, and Analogy. These principles assist scientists in assessing the likelihood of causation in complex biological contexts. Below is a summary of these concepts:
What is Climate?01:16

What is Climate?

Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
Correlation and Causation01:27

Correlation and Causation

Correlation and CausationStatistical tests can calculate whether there is a relationship, or correlation, between independent and dependent variables. A relationship between variables shows correlation, but it does not show cause-and-effect. A direct cause-and-effect relationship requires additional controlled experiments. If no consistent relationship exists between the variables, then there is no correlation.Correlation versus CausationIf the dependent variable increases or decreases when the...

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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Jun 21, 2026

Application of Granger Causality Analysis of the Directed Functional Connection in Alzheimer's Disease and Mild Cognitive Impairment
08:43

Application of Granger Causality Analysis of the Directed Functional Connection in Alzheimer's Disease and Mild Cognitive Impairment

Published on: August 7, 2017

From Granger causality to long-term causality: application to climatic data.

Dmitry A Smirnov1, Igor I Mokhov

  • 1Saratov Branch of V. A. Kotel'nikov Institute of Radio Engineering and Electronics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Saratov 410019, Russia. smirnovda@info.sgu.ru

Physical Review. E, Statistical, Nonlinear, and Soft Matter Physics
|August 8, 2009
PubMed
Summary

This study introduces long-term causality to assess how processes influence each other over extended periods. It reveals that only anthropogenic CO2 emissions, not solar or volcanic activity, explain recent global surface temperature rise.

Related Experiment Videos

Last Updated: Jun 21, 2026

Application of Granger Causality Analysis of the Directed Functional Connection in Alzheimer's Disease and Mild Cognitive Impairment
08:43

Application of Granger Causality Analysis of the Directed Functional Connection in Alzheimer's Disease and Mild Cognitive Impairment

Published on: August 7, 2017

Area of Science:

  • Interdisciplinary natural sciences, including geophysics and biophysics.
  • Time series analysis and complex systems modeling.

Background:

  • Traditional methods like Granger causality focus on short-term interactions (one-step-ahead predictions).
  • These methods fail to quantify the long-term impact of one process on another's behavior.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To introduce and define the concept of long-term causality.
  • To develop methods for estimating long-term causality from empirical data.
  • To apply this new concept to understand factors influencing global surface temperature (GST).

Main Methods:

  • Development of a novel 'long-term causality' metric extending Granger causality.
  • Empirical modeling and analysis of model dynamics under varied conditions.
  • Application to historical data of global surface temperature, CO2 levels, solar activity, and volcanic activity over 150 years.

Main Results:

  • Granger causality detected short-term influences of CO2, solar, and volcanic activity on GST.
  • Long-term causality analysis revealed that only anthropogenic CO2 emissions significantly explain the recent rise in GST.
  • Solar and volcanic activities showed negligible long-term causal impact on global surface temperature trends.

Conclusions:

  • Long-term causality provides a more comprehensive understanding of process interactions than short-term measures.
  • Anthropogenic CO2 emissions are the primary driver of recent global surface temperature increases.
  • The developed methodology offers a robust tool for analyzing long-term causal relationships in complex natural systems.