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Prostate cancer mortality reduction by prostate-specific antigen-based screening adjusted for nonattendance and
Monique J Roobol1, Melissa Kerkhof, Fritz H Schröder
1Department of Urology, Erasmus MC, University Medical Centre, Rotterdam, The Netherlands. m.roobol@erasmusmc.nl
Background:
Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) based screening for prostate cancer (PCa) has been shown to reduce prostate specific mortality by 20% in an intention to screen (ITS) analysis in a randomised trial (European Randomised Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer [ERSPC]). This effect may be diluted by nonattendance in men randomised to the screening arm and contamination in men randomised to the control arm.
Objective:
To assess the magnitude of the PCa-specific mortality reduction after adjustment for nonattendance and contamination.
Design, Setting, And Participants:
We analysed the occurrence of PCa deaths during an average follow-up of 9 yr in 162,243 men 55-69 yr of age randomised in seven participating centres of the ERSPC. Centres were also grouped according to the type of randomisation (ie, before or after informed written consent).
Intervention:
Nonattendance was defined as nonattending the initial screening round in ERSPC. The estimate of contamination was based on PSA use in controls in ERSPC Rotterdam.
Measurements:
Relative risks (RRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were compared between an ITS analysis and analyses adjusting for nonattendance and contamination using a statistical method developed for this purpose.
Results And Limitations:
In the ITS analysis, the RR of PCa death in men allocated to the intervention arm relative to the control arm was 0.80 (95% CI, 0.68-0.96). Adjustment for nonattendance resulted in a RR of 0.73 (95% CI, 0.58-0.93), and additional adjustment for contamination using two different estimates led to estimated reductions of 0.69 (95% CI, 0.51-0.92) to 0.71 (95% CI, 0.55-0.93), respectively. Contamination data were obtained through extrapolation of single-centre data. No heterogeneity was found between the groups of centres.
Conclusions:
PSA screening reduces the risk of dying of PCa by up to 31% in men actually screened. This benefit should be weighed against a degree of overdiagnosis and overtreatment inherent in PCa screening.

