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Necropsy-based Wild Fish Health Assessment
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Assessing threats to species at risk using stage-structured state-space models: mortality trends in skate

Douglas P Swain1, Ian D Jonsen, James E Simon

  • 1Fisheries and Oceans Canada, Gulf Fisheries Centre, P.O. Box 5030, 343 University Avenue, Moncton, New Brunswick EIC9B6, Canada. Doug.Swain@dfo-mpo.gc.ca

Ecological Applications : a Publication of the Ecological Society of America
|August 20, 2009
PubMed
Summary

New population models estimate vital rates from length data, revealing shifts in winter skate mortality. Increased adult mortality, linked to grey seal predation, impacts endangered populations even without fishing.

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
  • Fisheries Science
  • Conservation Biology

Background:

  • Accurate population models are crucial for assessing threats to at-risk species and evaluating management strategies.
  • Traditional models often assume static vital rates, which is problematic given ongoing ecosystem changes.
  • Limited data availability for many at-risk species hinders effective population modeling.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and apply a novel modeling approach using time series of length composition data to estimate vital rates.
  • To test for temporal changes in vital rates, specifically for endangered and threatened winter skate (Leucoraja ocellata) populations.
  • To identify key factors contributing to population declines and project future population trajectories.

Main Methods:

  • Employed stage-structured population models within a Bayesian state-space framework.
  • Simultaneously accounted for both process and observation uncertainty.
  • Incorporated prior information on population dynamics and monitoring processes.

Main Results:

  • Estimated decreased natural mortality for juvenile winter skate and increased natural mortality for adults.
  • Identified increased adult natural mortality as a significant factor in population declines, positively correlated with grey seal (Halichoerus grypus) abundance.
  • Projected that even without fishery removals, the endangered winter skate population would likely continue to decline, while the threatened population might stabilize at low levels.

Conclusions:

  • The developed modeling approach effectively estimates vital rates and detects changes from length composition data.
  • Increased adult mortality, potentially driven by grey seal predation, is a critical threat to winter skate populations.
  • Conservation strategies must consider factors beyond fishery bycatch, such as predation, to effectively manage at-risk marine species.