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Updated: Jun 20, 2026

Predicting the Effectiveness of Population Replacement Strategy Using Mathematical Modeling
Published on: July 4, 2007
Considering population and war: a critical and neglected aspect of conflict studies
1Department of Political Science, Baylor University, PO Box 97276, Waco, TX 76798-7276, USA. bradley_thayer@baylor.edu
Abstract:
This study analyses the relationship between war and population. The impact of the growth and decline of population on important types of warfare--great power, small power, civil war as well as terrorism--is illustrated, with the objective in each case to be descriptive of risk. I find that population change has a significant impact on each, with the greatest causal impact on small power conflicts, civil war and upon terrorism. I conclude with some reasons for guarded optimism about the incorporation of population as a component of analysis in the discipline of international studies, and for the potential to devise new solutions to prevent conflict.
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