Bacterial pneumonias during an influenza pandemic: how will we allocate antibiotics?
Sandro K Cinti1, Andrew R Barnosky, Steven E Gay
1Infectious Diseases, University of Michigan Hospitals/VA Ann Arbor Health Systems, Ann Arbor, Michigan 48105, USA. scinti@umich.edu
Abstract:
We are currently in the midst of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic, and a second wave of flu in the fall and winter could lead to more hospitalizations for pneumonia. Recent pathologic and historic data from the 1918 influenza pandemic confirms that many, if not most, of the deaths in that pandemic were a result of secondary bacterial pneumonias. This means that a second wave of 2009 H1N1 pandemic influenza could result in a widespread shortage of antibiotics, making these medications a scarce resource. Recently, our University of Michigan Health System (UMHS) Scarce Resource Allocation Committee (SRAC) added antibiotics to a list of resources (including ventilators, antivirals, vaccines) that might become scarce during an influenza pandemic. In this article, we summarize the data on bacterial pneumonias during the 1918 influenza pandemic, discuss the possible impact of a pandemic on the University of Michigan Health System, and summarize our committee's guiding principles for allocating antibiotics during a pandemic.
Insights
A second wave of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic may cause antibiotic shortages due to secondary bacterial pneumonias, similar to the 1918 influenza pandemic. This highlights the need for scarce resource allocation planning for essential medications.
Area of Science:
- Infectious Diseases
- Public Health
- Critical Care Medicine
Background:
- The 2009 H1N1 influenza pandemic presents a risk of secondary bacterial pneumonias.
- Historical data from the 1918 influenza pandemic indicates bacterial pneumonias caused a majority of deaths.
Observation:
- Secondary bacterial pneumonias can lead to increased hospitalizations during influenza pandemics.
- Antibiotics may become a scarce resource during a severe influenza outbreak.
Findings:
- The 1918 pandemic's high mortality was largely due to secondary bacterial pneumonias.
- A potential second wave of H1N1 influenza could strain antibiotic supplies.
Implications:
- The University of Michigan Health System (UMHS) has identified antibiotics as a potentially scarce resource.
- Scarce Resource Allocation Committees (SRAC) must develop guidelines for antibiotic allocation during pandemics.
- Proactive planning is crucial to manage essential medication shortages during public health crises.
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