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Published on: April 6, 2019
A framework for assessing and managing risks posed by emerging diseases
1School of Botany, The University of Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. twalshe@unimelb.edu.au
Summary
This study introduces a transparent risk analysis framework for emerging diseases and invasive species, integrating technical and social judgments. The approach enhances decision-making without requiring new data, improving risk assessment for environmental hazards.
Area of Science:
- Risk Analysis
- Environmental Management
- Decision Science
Background:
- Traditional risk assessment frameworks for emerging diseases and invasive species often rely on subjective estimates.
- There is a need for more transparent and structured methods to evaluate risks and consequences.
Purpose of the Study:
- To propose a flexible and transparent analytical framework for assessing risks of emerging diseases and invasive species.
- To integrate technical and social judgments for more robust risk evaluations.
- To demonstrate the utility of the framework in a real-world management scenario.
Main Methods:
- Utilized a combination of cognitive maps, Bayesian networks (Bayes nets), and multicriteria analysis.
- Structured the problem, identified exposure pathways, and combined data with expert judgment.
- Assessed the consequences of alternative management decisions.
Main Results:
- The proposed system offers a transparent alternative to unstructured risk estimates.
- The integrated approach explicitly treats technical and social judgments.
- The framework can be applied in participatory settings or standard regulatory practice.
Conclusions:
- The described framework provides a structured and transparent method for analyzing risks associated with emerging diseases and invasive species.
- This approach enhances the assessment of likelihoods and consequences by integrating diverse forms of judgment.
- The methodology is applicable to various environmental management and regulatory contexts.
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