Predictive validity of a modified fall assessment tool in nursing homes: experience from Slovenia

The aim of the study was to evaluate the predictive validity of the Modified Fall Assessment Tool (MFAT) in a nursing home setting. The study involved 83 residents from a nursing home in Slovenia with an average age of 81 years. To determine the predictive characteristics of the MFAT, a receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was applied. During the observation period of 12 weeks, 18 residents fell. The fallers had a significantly higher history of falls, a higher number of diagnoses, more medication, and a higher MFAT score than the non-fallers. Using the estimated criterion of 20 points, the sensitivity of the MFAT score was 61%, its specificity was 80%, its classification accuracy was 64%, its positive likelihood ratio was 3.1, its negative likelihood ratio was 0.5, its positive predictive value was 46%, and its negative predictive value was 88%. The results showed that the MFAT is suitable for the prediction of falls and, hence, also the prevention of falls in nursing homes, whereby the recommended criterion score is 20 points.