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Published on: October 3, 2016
A new model of bioterrorism risk assessment
Vladan Radosavljevic1, Goran Belojevic
1Military Institute of Preventive Medicine in Belgrade, Serbia.
Summary
This study introduces a clear bioterrorism risk assessment framework for policymakers. It categorizes attacks and uses a 4-component model to evaluate threats, aiding biodefense strategy development.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Biosecurity
- Risk Assessment
Background:
- Unclear biodefense strategies exist due to numerous bioterrorism attack scenarios.
- A need for an accessible risk assessment framework for policymakers is evident.
Purpose of the Study:
- To present a clear and understandable framework for bioterrorism risk assessment.
- To aid policymakers in developing effective biodefense strategies.
Main Methods:
- Literature review of Medline (1987-2009) and internet searches using terms related to bioterrorism and risk assessment.
- Categorization of bioterrorist attacks into strategical, operational, and tactical scales.
- Development of a 4-component chain model (perpetrators, agents, delivery, targets) for risk assessment.
Main Results:
- A framework for bioterrorism risk assessment is proposed.
- Quantitative and qualitative risk assessment parameters are suggested for each component of the attack model.
- A scoring system is demonstrated using the 2001 U.S. anthrax attacks.
Conclusions:
- The proposed framework offers a structured approach to bioterrorism risk assessment.
- The model is designed for accessibility to non-experts, supporting informed policy decisions.
- This framework can enhance biodefense strategies by providing a systematic evaluation method.
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