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The shifting demographic landscape of influenza

Shweta Bansal1, Babak Pourbohloul, Nathaniel Hupert

  • 1Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Penn State University; Division of Mathematical Modeling, British Columbia Centre for Disease Control; Weill Cornell Medical College (NYC) and Preparedness Modeling Unit, U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC, Atlanta); Princeton University and The University of Texas at Austin.

Plos Currents
|March 2, 2012
PubMed

Insights

Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza disproportionately affects school-age children. Mathematical modeling suggests this age bias will shift to adults in subsequent seasons, impacting public health strategies.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Modeling
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Pandemic (H1N1) 2009 influenza shows a higher incidence in school-aged children compared to adults.
  • Pre-existing immunity in older adults does not fully account for the observed age-specific infection rate disparities.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To explain the demographic basis for the age bias in H1N1/09 attack rates.
  • To predict the future epidemiological trajectory of the pandemic strain.

Main Methods:

  • Retrospective analysis of historical pandemic influenza strains over the past century.
  • Development and application of a network-based mathematical model.
  • Incorporation of changing contact patterns within the susceptible population.

Main Results:

  • School-aged children experience the highest attack rates in naive populations during the initial phase of a pandemic.
  • The epidemiological burden is predicted to shift towards adults in subsequent seasons.
  • The mathematical model successfully replicates this observed shift in influenza attack rates.

Conclusions:

  • A straightforward demographic explanation exists for the age bias in H1N1/09.
  • The age distribution of influenza attack rates is dynamic and expected to change.
  • Findings have critical implications for public health resource allocation and vaccine distribution.
Abstract

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