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The velocity of climate change
Scott R Loarie1, Philip B Duffy, Healy Hamilton
1Carnegie Institution for Science, Department of Global Ecology, Stanford, California 94305, USA. loarie@stanford.edu
Nature
|December 25, 2009
Summary
Species survival depends on keeping pace with climate change. A new index shows global mean temperature change velocity is 0.42 km/yr, with mountainous regions slowest and grasslands fastest, impacting protected areas.
Area of Science:
- Ecology
- Climate Change Science
- Conservation Biology
Background:
- Global climate change is causing shifts in species ranges.
- Mountainous ecosystems face unique threats due to limited migration pathways.
- Species' ability to track changing climates is crucial for survival.
Purpose of the Study:
- To introduce a novel index for measuring the velocity of temperature change across Earth's surface.
- To forecast the velocity of temperature change globally under future emission scenarios.
- To assess the implications of climate velocity for biodiversity conservation in protected areas.
Main Methods:
- Developed a new index quantifying the velocity of temperature change (km yr⁻¹) using spatial temperature gradients (°C km⁻¹) and multimodel ensemble forecasts.
- Calculated the global mean velocity of temperature change for the 21st century under the A1B emission scenario.
- Analyzed the velocity of temperature change in various biomes and assessed the residence times of climates within global protected areas.
Main Results:
- The global mean velocity of temperature change is projected to be 0.42 km yr⁻¹.
- Mountainous biomes exhibit the lowest velocities (e.g., tropical coniferous forests at 0.08 km yr⁻¹), while flooded grasslands and mangroves show the highest.
- Only 8% of global protected areas are projected to maintain their climate for over 100 years, with small protected areas exacerbating issues in certain biomes.
Conclusions:
- Climate velocity is a critical factor for species survival, alongside climate persistence.
- Management strategies must consider climate velocity, with montane landscapes offering potential refugia.
- Expanding protected areas, reducing emissions, and facilitating species movement are essential for minimizing biodiversity loss due to climate change.
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