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Polling the face: prediction and consensus across cultures.

Nicholas O Rule¹, Nalini Ambady, Reginald B Adams

¹Department of Psychology, Tufts University Medford, Massachusetts 02155, USA. nicholas.rule@tufts.edu

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology

|January 8, 2010

Summary

Facial inferences are culturally consistent and predict election outcomes. However, accurate predictions require understanding the target

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Area of Science:

Social Psychology
Cross-Cultural Psychology
Political Psychology

Background:

Previous research indicates cross-cultural agreement in inferring traits from faces.
Facial trait inferences have been shown to predict outcomes within specific cultural contexts.

Purpose of the Study:

To investigate whether cross-cultural facial inferences predict political election outcomes.
To examine if cultural knowledge is necessary for accurate face-based predictions of electoral success.

Main Methods:

Conducted cross-cultural studies with American and Japanese participants.
Participants provided trait inferences from faces of U.S. and Japanese political candidates.
Correlated facial judgments with actual election results (percentage of votes).

Main Results:

High agreement in facial trait ratings was observed across American and Japanese perceivers.
Facial judgments predicted electoral success for both American and Japanese candidates.
Specific predictive traits for electoral success varied significantly based on the candidate's culture.
Inferences about foreign candidates' electoral success showed self-projection bias.

Conclusions:

Individuals can reliably infer predictive information from faces across cultures.
Accurate prediction of electoral success from faces necessitates an understanding of the target's cultural context.
Cross-cultural judgments of political candidates are susceptible to self-projection without cultural knowledge.