Affective Forecasting and Memory Biases during the Tokyo and Beijing Olympics

This study examined how people predicted and recalled their emotional experiences during the Tokyo and Beijing Olympics, which were held during the COVID-19 pandemic. Building on the theoretical framework proposed by Buechel et al. (2017), which explains how people are likely to overestimate or underestimate their future emotions depending on outcome specifications (e.g., psychological distance, magnitude, and duration), we extended this approach in our study. We investigated whether this model could be applied to real-world public events. Using longitudinal online surveys conducted in Japan before, during, and after the two Olympics, we analyzed the responses of 2,059 participants in the Tokyo Games and 2,595 participants in the Beijing Games. Consistent with Buechel et al.'s framework, the results showed that positive emotions experienced during the Olympics were generally underestimated beforehand, especially among individuals who initially opposed the events. Furthermore, the recollection of emotional experiences was influenced by contextual factors such as the perceived infection situation at the time of recall. These findings contribute to a deeper understanding of affective forecasting and memory biases in the context of real-world events, and demonstrate the applicability of existing theoretical models to large-scale societal situations outside the laboratory.

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s42761-026-00361-0.