Affective Forecasting Accuracy in Everyday Life

Area of Science:

• Psychology
• Cognitive Science
• Behavioral Economics

Background:

• Affective forecasting, or predicting future emotions, is crucial for decision-making.
• Existing research primarily focuses on forecasting accuracy for rare, significant events.
• Everyday affective forecasts for common events and time periods are less understood.

Purpose of the Study:

• To investigate the accuracy of everyday affective forecasts.
• To examine forecasting accuracy for general periods (e.g., tomorrow) and specific unpleasant events.
• To compare everyday forecasting accuracy with that of major life events.

Main Methods:

• Two intensive longitudinal studies were conducted.
• Study 1 involved a week-long experience sampling design with 209 participants.
• Study 2 utilized a two-week daily diary approach with 69 participants, focusing on nominated unpleasant events.

Main Results:

• Participants demonstrated relative accuracy in predicting when their affect would be better or worse than usual.
• Small errors in absolute affect level forecasting were observed (absolute inaccuracy).
• Everyday forecasting errors appear smaller compared to those for major life events.

Conclusions:

• Everyday affective forecasting exhibits relative accuracy, aiding daily decision-making.
• Understanding these forecasts informs the use of emotion regulation strategies.
• Findings suggest that people are reasonably adept at predicting their emotional states in daily life.