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A Precise and Autonomous System for the Detection of Insect Emergence Patterns
Published on: January 9, 2019
Modeling the effects of developmental variation on insect phenology
1Department of Mathematics, Hope College, Holland, MI 49422-9000, USA. yurk@hope.edu
Bulletin of Mathematical Biology
|January 29, 2010
Summary
Understanding insect phenology is key to predicting climate change impacts. This study models insect development time, finding persistent variation best explains mountain pine beetle timing.
Area of Science:
- Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
- Mathematical Biology
- Entomology
Background:
- Insect phenology, the timing of life cycle events, is temperature-dependent due to ectothermy.
- Variation in development time within and between insect populations influences phenological responses.
- Predicting climate change effects on insect populations requires understanding sources of variation in phenology.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and compare nested phenology models that incorporate different levels of variation in insect development time.
- To assess the relative importance of persistent and random variation in explaining mountain pine beetle phenology.
- To provide a framework for predicting insect phenological shifts under changing environmental conditions.
Main Methods:
- Derived three nested models: an advection equation (no variation), a phenotype-dependent advection equation (persistent variation), and a Fokker-Planck equation (random variation).
- Formulated models in terms of development time, directly measurable in the lab.
- Parameterized and compared models using maximum likelihood on laboratory development time data for mountain pine beetles (MPB).
Main Results:
- The phenotype-dependent advection model, incorporating persistent variation, provided the best fit to MPB laboratory development time data.
- Persistent variation alone appears sufficient to describe MPB phenology.
- Simulations using field data (phloem temperatures, attack times) showed favorable agreement with observed MPB emergence times.
Conclusions:
- Persistent variation is a critical factor in mountain pine beetle phenology.
- The developed models offer a robust approach to studying insect phenology and its response to environmental change.
- Accurate phenological modeling is essential for forecasting insect population dynamics and impacts in a changing climate.
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