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Updated: Jun 16, 2026
06:27
Simulating Impacts of Ice Storms on Forest Ecosystems
Published on: June 30, 2020
Modeling transient response of forests to climate change
Virginia H Dale1, M Lynn Tharp, Karen O Lannom
1Environmental Sciences Division, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee, USA. dalevh@ornl.gov
The Science of the Total Environment
|February 19, 2010
Summary
Forest diversity in Tennessee enhances resilience to climate change. Higher tree diversity, particularly in the Southern Mixed Forest, supports biomass recovery and ecosystem stability under projected climate shifts.
Area of Science:
- Forest Ecology
- Climate Change Science
- Ecosystem Modeling
Background:
- Climate change poses a significant threat to forest ecosystems globally.
- Understanding forest resilience is crucial for effective conservation and management strategies.
- Tennessee's forests are vulnerable to projected climate shifts.
Purpose of the Study:
- To test the hypothesis that high diversity of dominant life forms in Tennessee forests enhances resilience to climate change.
- To project potential impacts of climate change on forest composition and biomass in Tennessee.
- To investigate the relationship between tree diversity and forest biomass recovery.
Main Methods:
- Utilized three General Circulation Models (GCMs) under the IPCC A1B storyline for climate projections (2030, 2080).
- Integrated GCM outputs with historical climate data (1980-1997) across five ecological provinces in Tennessee.
- Employed the LINKAGES forest ecosystem model to simulate forest dynamics from 1989 to 2300.
Main Results:
- Projected temperature increases across all ecological provinces; precipitation changes were more complex.
- Simulations indicated changes in tree diversity and species composition, most notably in the Southern Mixed Forest province.
- Projected declines in tree biomass were followed by recovery, linked to species replacement and dominant tree diversity.
Conclusions:
- Forest biomass recovery post-climate change is associated with dominant tree diversity in southeastern US forests.
- The Southern Mixed Forest province is projected to experience significant changes, with lower diversity and biomass compared to other provinces.
- Findings suggest forest management strategies can influence climate change impacts on forest ecosystems.
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