A preliminary examination of specific risk assessment for sexual offenders against children

Specific risk questions concerning sexual offending, such as risk of offending against male victims given identified female victims, have seldom been discussed in the child sexual abuse literature. Two approaches to specific risk questions are described: (a) conditional probability calculations, and (b) the development of risk assessment instruments. It is concluded that specific risk questions should be addressed by the use of established instruments for assessing risk of general sexual recidivism rather than by the development of additional specific risk assessment instruments. Research supporting risk assessment instruments and cautions about their use are discussed. Finally, the application of risk assessments for sexual offenders and assessments of risk to siblings of incest victims is discussed.