Related Experiment Video
Updated: Jun 15, 2026
06:10
Using Generative Art to Convey Past and Future Climate Transitions
Published on: March 31, 2023
Avian distributions under climate change: towards improved projections.
1Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520-8106, USA. frank.lasorte@yale.edu
The Journal of Experimental Biology
|March 2, 2010
Summary
Birds are adapting to climate change by shifting ranges. Developing mechanistic models for birds can improve predictions of future impacts on avian populations and biodiversity.
Area of Science:
- Avian ecology
- Climate change biology
- Biodiversity research
Background:
- Birds exhibit range shifts in response to climate change, moving to cooler latitudes and higher altitudes.
- These shifts impact migration, community structure, and raise concerns about future range contractions.
- Current correlative models have limitations in providing reliable projections for avian responses to climate change.
Purpose of the Study:
- To advocate for the development of mechanistic species distribution models for birds.
- To highlight how integrating flight performance and thermal data can enhance predictive accuracy.
- To emphasize the need for broader taxonomic and geographic scope, including tropical species, for generalizable inferences.
Main Methods:
- Review of existing empirical data on bird distribution, migration, and physiology.
- Discussion of the limitations of correlative species distribution models.
- Proposal for integrating mechanistic components into predictive models for avian responses.
Main Results:
- Correlative models predict significant range contractions and shifts for many bird species under climate change.
- Mechanistic models, while data-intensive, offer richer inferences but are currently limited in scope.
- Existing avian data on flight and thermal tolerance provide a strong foundation for developing improved models.
Conclusions:
- Further development of mechanistic models for birds is crucial to complement empirical data and theoretical projections.
- A balance between model detail and broad taxonomic/geographic scale is essential for global change biodiversity research.
- Birds represent an ideal group for advancing and integrating predictive modeling approaches in ecology.
Related Concept Videos
01:50Global Climate Change
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
01:16What is Climate?
Climate refers to the prevailing weather conditions in a specific area over an extended period. As the saying goes, “Climate is what you expect. Weather is what you get.” Climate is influenced by geographic factors, such as latitude, terrain, and proximity to bodies of water.
01:27Microbes and Climate Change
Microorganisms are pivotal agents in Earth's biogeochemical cycles, significantly influencing climate dynamics through their metabolic activities. These microbes modulate the levels of key greenhouse gases by both contributing to and helping mitigate climate change.Microbial Contributions to Greenhouse Gas EmissionsRising global temperatures accelerate microbial metabolism, which, in turn, speeds up the decomposition of organic matter. This process releases carbon dioxide (CO₂) through...
01:07Speciation Rates
Speciation can proceed at markedly different rates, and evolutionary biologists commonly describe these differences through the models of gradualism and punctuated equilibrium. Both patterns explain how new species arise, but they differ in the tempo and continuity of evolutionary change. In both cases, evolutionary change arises from heritable variation within populations, with natural selection often shaping traits that improve survival and reproduction under specific environmental conditions.
01:57Adaptations that Reduce Water Loss
Though evaporation from plant leaves drives transpiration, it also results in loss of water. Because water is critical for photosynthetic reactions and other cellular processes, evolutionary pressures on plants in different environments have driven the acquisition of adaptations that reduce water loss.
02:07Conservation of Declining Populations
Conservation of declining population focuses on ways of detecting, diagnosing, and halting a population decline. The approach uses methods to prevent populations from going extinct.